A Review of TOSSD Data from the first provider survey (2019 data)
Building upon a background paper on the evolution of the TOSSD metric (Total Official Support for Sustainable Development), which set out differing CSO perspectives and outstanding issues, I want to draw your attention to a recent analysis of TOSSD data that has been published in TOSSD's data dashboard. It is attached and available at http://aidwatchcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/An-Overview-of-2019-TOSSD-Data.pdf. The paper analyzes the highlights of trends apparent in this data.
At the macro level the data demonstrates significant levels of official flows dedicated to the SDGs beyond DAC reported ODA, including a few South South Cooperation providers and institutions. It presents the data from a recipient perspective, which is important for the way that resource transfers from multilateral institutions are treated (different from ODA). However, given that this data is the result of the first provider survey, it still relies very heavily on the OECD DAC Creditor Reporting System.
Below is a summary of the findings. Further commentary or questions are most welcome.
A Summary of Findings
- Total net disbursements According to the Secretariat these total disbursements were reported by 43 countries and 49 multilateral organizations, with first time data from 13 countries and institutions. Total net disbursements in official flows reported by all providers were $230.9 billion. These flows were cross-border flows to TOSSD-eligible countries (Pillar One) and to International Public Goods (Pillar Two). Total (multi-year) commitments were $391.2 billion. Gross disbursements were $296.1 billion, with reported $65.3 billion in reflows from previous loans and debt instruments. This analysis, unless otherwise stated, reflects on trends for net disbursements, as these being those that have a net benefit to recipient countries.
- Types of providers Twenty six (26) bilateral donors and other high income countries accounted for 40% of TOSSD net disbursements; multilateral providers, 35%, South South country providers and SSC multilaterals, 4%, and 20% of activities related to “aggregate“ providers. The aggregate data includes Secretariat-generated estimates for the World Bank, Germany, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic that did not report.
- Top five providers Total net disbursements were highly concentrated. Not including “aggregate” providers, the five top providers accounted for 54% of TOSSD net disbursements – the United States ($26.3 billion – 19%), European Union ($23.6 billion – 17%), France ($19.5 billion – 14%), the United Kingdom ($10.6 billion – 8%), and the Arab Development Bank ($9.1 billion – 6%). For Pillar Two only, France and the and the European Union account for more than half of these disbursements (55%).
- Allocation by pillar Pillar One accounts for 70% of net disbursements and Pillar Two for 30%. Bilateral providers, including the European Union, made up 76% of the net disbursements under Pillar Two for International Public Goods.
- Sources for TOSSD data TOSSD was highly dependent on CRS data for this first round of provider surveys. Excluding estimates to fill data gaps (non-reporting providers), only 28% of net disbursements for TOSSD were reported uniquely to TOSSD, with other disbursements derived from the DAC Creditor Reporting System (71%). Secretariat estimates to fill data gaps for non-reporting providers were 19% of total net disbursements. This result is not unexpected for the first data gathering exercise, particularly provider challenges in assembling the data that is not usually reported to the DAC CRS. For DAC providers and the EU, 24% of activities reported to TOSSD were unique.
- Disbursements reported uniquely to TOSSD A total of $51.5 billion in net disbursements were reported uniquely to TOSSD, with 60% of these flows related to Pillar Two activities for IPGs. They make up 44% of total net disbursements for Pillar Two. Ten providers account for more than 90% of these uniquely reported activities, with France, the EU and the World Food Program together making up 57% of uniquely reported activities.
- Concessionality Approximately 57% of gross disbursements reported to TOSSD were concessional (76% if unknown instruments are excluded which make up 26% of total gross disbursements). Loans were 20% of gross disbursements (27% excluding the unknown), of which almost two thirds were non-concessional in nature. This result is not surprising given the large reliance on the CRS for data, which is largely concessional flows, in this first survey.
- Regional allocations At 44% and 37% respectively, Africa and Asia are the primary geographic focus for Pillar One net disbursements. Humanitarian assistance has a strong impact on the allocation of flows for Pillar One. When humanitarian assistance is removed, Africa’s share increases to 47% and Asia’s share (including the Middle East) drops to 35%. With its focus on International Public Goods, only 17% of Pillar Two disbursements are directed to a country or region.
- Allocations to country income groups More than 86% of Pillar One country-allocated disbursements were made to Least Developed or Lower Middle-Income Countries, with 43% devoted to Least Developed and Low-Income Countries.
- Top country recipients The top 15 recipient countries for Pillar One TOSSD net disbursements received 47% of these disbursements. Five (5) are Least Developed Countries, eight (8) are Lower Middle-Income Countries, and two (2) are Upper Middle-Income Countries. For Pillar Two, 85% of net disbursements had no recipient country specified. While not surprising given the focus on IPGs, as noted above, there is also no data verification to determine whether these IPG activities were of “substantial benefit” to recipient countries.
- Additional reported disbursements for countries beyond CRS Approximately $11.9 billion in net disbursements were reported for recipient countries beyond what would be available through the DAC CRS. In total this amount represents 7% of total disbursements allocated by countries, not derived from the CRS. But as noted above, in TOSSD, multilateral flows are reported as received by partner countries, and not as in ODA as received from DAC donors by the multilateral organization. While the difference has not been taken into account, TOSSD provides a more accurate picture of multilateral flows from a recipient country perspective.
- Sector allocation of TOSSD At $32.2 billion, humanitarian assistance is the largest sectoral allocation for TOSSD, with almost all allocated through Pillar One, including $7.6 billion by Turkey. Within the ‘Government and Civil Society’ sector $7.4 billion (or about 26% of this purpose code) relates to peace operations, security sector reform and facilitation of orderly migration and mobility, with just under half reported exclusively to TOSSD. At $22.9 billion or 11% of all TOSSD sector allocated net disbursements, energy is the third largest sector, with allocations from both Pillar One and Pillar Two. Investments related to fossil fuels, nuclear energy and large hydro electric energy represent 10% of total gross investments (not counting reflows) in the energy sector (excluding allocations to policy development and administration of energy systems).
- Sector allocation for TOSSD activities reported exclusively to TOSSD Of the $54.9 billion in exclusively reported activities, 25% were for humanitarian assistance, which made up more than a third (36%) of all disbursements for this sector. For energy, 44% of disbursements were reported uniquely to TOSSD.
- Allocation to the SDGs Disaggregating all flows to individual SDGs is difficult as more than a third of activities are allocated to more than one SDG. Looking only at net disbursements for activities allocated entirely to single SDGs (66% of SDG allocated disbursements), the top SDGs are Goal 1 (ending poverty), Goal 7 (sustainable energy for all), Goal 3 (health), Goal 17 (partnerships) and Goal 4 (quality education). Together these five goals were allocated 59% of disbursements towards single SDGs. However, some Goals, such as Gender Equality or Climate Action are under-represented as only 7% and 8% of disbursements respectively, are reported solely to these Goals.
- Mobilized private finance A total of $47.1 billion in private finance was reported separately to TOSSD as mobilized by official flows. There is no information on the providers related to these private flows and none on the official resources that were the basis for their mobilization. While spread over 106 countries and regions, the top ten recipients received $6.9 billion or 63% of those flows for which a recipient was identified ($10.9 billion). Not unexpectedly, the top five sectors relate closely to those in which the private sector is a major stakeholder – banking and financial services, energy, industry, mining and construction, and business and other services. The fifth sector among the top five is agriculture and forestry. Together these sectors captured 91% of mobilized private sector funds for which a sector is identified ($12.3 billion).